Status: Slow but
Steady Improvement
Supply & Demand
full years: Click here for Chart
FS= -11.0 % Under
Contract= 60.3% Sold= -3.3
Reaction: The metrics for this time period indicate continuing
improvement for the Lehigh Valley Housing market. The Sold metric has been the
issue for the year, as it is frequently negative despite the Under Contract
metric being dramatically positive.
The problem has often been financing, within the residential
market it has become difficult to obtain a mortgage and has impeded many deals.
However, this also means there are a lot of filters
prohibiting buyers from reaching the settlement table: in essence this means
the people who are settling on properties faced more stringent requirements for a mortgage; which hopefully
means the quality of buyers now are higher
than before the bust.
Supply & Demand
year over year (June 2012 vs June 2011)- Click here for Chart
FS=-6.5% Under
Contract=41.7 Sold=2.2
Reaction: Every metric is cooperating in this chart. Supply
declined, transactions increased, and the amount of properties settling followed
suit. Once the Sold metric becomes as exuberantly positive as the Under
Contract metric, the Lehigh Valley should see price increases.
Median Price chart
full year: Click here for Chart
184,900 @ 553 units sold= -2.5%
Reaction: This is the metric’s best level of 2012. It is
still negative, but it is a part of an overall improving trend. From Jan 2012
to June 2012, median price has increased 19%. I added a trend line to emphasize
the point, the positive trend is subtle.
Median Price year
over year: Click here for Chart
3.9%
Reaction: Since March 2012, this metric has been good for the
Lehigh Valley market. This chart can be added to the continuing positive trend
for Median Price.
Month’s Supply of
inventory full year: Click here for Chart
MSI= 5.4 months @
Reaction: Between 4-6 months of inventory is a normal
market. The Lehigh Valley market place is in a normal market according to this
number.
-38.1%
Reaction: This June is better than last year’s June. As each
month beats last year’s standards, the metrics, including MSI, will become more
and more compelling, in many cases they already have.
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