Ask me how!

I recently Sold this home while representing the Seller. We were only asking $139,900, we received $141,500.

      Ask me how! Especially if you are thinking about becoming a First Time home buyer!

Have a lovely night!

-Stephen

Which home settled for more? Post your opinion!

I settled both of these properties this month and thought it would be an interesting question to ask which one settled for the greater amount! Option 1 is technically two properties as it is a twin but I am asking about the whole home together.

Option 1:

Twin

Option 2 :

End of Row Home

September 2012 Market Update:

Best regards to you! The housing market in the Lehigh Valley has had some tremendously positive news over the past 2 months.

Notes about Median Price

-In July it was the first time in two years that the least regression model for charting Median price over the that span is positive.To Chart

-September witnessed impeded growth in the 2 year chart but supported a 9.4% increase in price over the 1 year regression line and -1.7% in the year over year chart. Year Over Year Chart

-For three straight months the trailing 1 year regression line for Median Price has shown growth.

Notes about Supply and Demand

-Sold Homes increased by 47% over the past year and this is a positive for the Lehigh Valley. Sold homes

-Comparing the time period of September 2012-2011 to  September 2011-2010 shows marked 

improvement for the Lehigh Valley because For sale homes increased at a slower rate over the past year and homes going Under Contract increased by an additional 25%. Sept12-11 &  Sept 11-10

-The Month to Month view is positive for all of the metrics which implies future numbers should improve. These gains are excellent but indicate slow growth, not the dramatically positive growth everybody would like to see. Month to Month Chart

Notes about Supply

-The supply is at a close to market neutral level of 6.5. Meaning if residents of the Lehigh Valley stopped listing their homes it would take 6 months and 15 days to sell all of the homes on the market at the current rate of sales.

-The Month to Month view illustrates a -36.3% decrease in supply, this is excellent! 6.5 months vs 10.2
Month to Month Chart

-The trailing average of supply for the year has decreased by -46.8%.   Year Supply Chart

  

-The supply of homes in the Lehigh Valley has not been above 10 for 2012; the supply of homes have not been above 9 this year.

-The average MSI for the Lehigh Valley indicates a slight buyer’s market but since that buyer advantage is slight there is a significant variances as to where Buyer’s have an advantage and where they do not. I feel compelled to say: "contact your local Realtor to find out the differences in area!".

Thanks for reading, I appreciate your time!

disclaimer

Property in Upper Nazareth

I Sold this house last month and I thought that I was able to get a particularly nice photo of it, so I wanted to share!

Sold Price: $349,800

Price per SQF:$ 95.57

Square Feet: 3660

Disclaimer

Disclaimer:

-All representations concerning the following metrics: For Sale (FS), Under Contract (UC), Sold (S), Median Price (MP) and Month's Supply of Inventory (MSI), as well as any other metrics used in a given post that contains this disclaimer, are specific to one time period.

-All of the data is compiled from the Lehigh Valley Association of Realtor's Multi List and thus variations in the metrics can occur as previously undiclosed information about Settlements or Listings are eventually reported to the Multi List. In essence, these metrics are fluid.

Here are the metrics for the month of June 2012!

Information about Metrics

Status: Slow but Steady Improvement

Supply & Demand full years: Click here for Chart

FS= -11.0 %         Under Contract= 60.3%                 Sold= -3.3

Reaction: The metrics for this time period indicate continuing improvement for the Lehigh Valley Housing market. The Sold metric has been the issue for the year, as it is frequently negative despite the Under Contract metric being dramatically positive.

The problem has often been financing, within the residential market it has become difficult to obtain a mortgage and has impeded many deals.

However, this also means there are a lot of filters prohibiting buyers from reaching the settlement table: in essence this means the people who are settling on properties faced more stringent  requirements for a mortgage; which hopefully means the quality of buyers  now are higher than before the bust.

Supply & Demand year over year (June 2012 vs June 2011)-  Click here for Chart

FS=-6.5%             Under Contract=41.7                      Sold=2.2

Reaction: Every metric is cooperating in this chart. Supply declined, transactions increased, and the amount of properties settling followed suit. Once the Sold metric becomes as exuberantly positive as the Under Contract metric, the Lehigh Valley should see price increases.

Median Price chart full year: Click here for Chart

184,900 @ 553 units sold= -2.5%

Reaction: This is the metric’s best level of 2012. It is still negative, but it is a part of an overall improving trend. From Jan 2012 to June 2012, median price has increased 19%. I added a trend line to emphasize the point, the positive trend is subtle.

Median Price year over year: Click here for Chart

3.9%

Reaction: Since March 2012, this metric has been good for the Lehigh Valley market. This chart can be added to the continuing positive trend for Median Price.

Month’s Supply of inventory full year: Click here for Chart

MSI= 5.4 months @

Reaction: Between 4-6 months of inventory is a normal market. The Lehigh Valley market place is in a normal market according to this number.

Month’s Supply of inventory year over year: Click here for Chart

-38.1%

Reaction: This June is better than last year’s June. As each month beats last year’s standards, the metrics, including MSI, will become more and more compelling, in many cases they already have.

May 2012 Update:

Introduction: This month we are looking to see if supply will continue to decrease. If decreasing supply continues for May 2012 and beyond, then there could begin a increase in prices. Comparing year over year (i.e May 2011 vs May 2012) has shown compelling metrics for the future. The positive year over year view supports the trend of decreasing supply which will eventually lead to price accretion.

Year over Year Supply & Demand chart: Chart

For Sale: -3.2% Under Contract: +56.5% Sold: +3.5%

Reaction: This chart is perfect for future Lehigh Valley home price increases. The overall supply is down compared to last year. Homes are going Under Contract at an increased rate and homes are settling at a modest increase. Homes reaching the settlement table has been an issue for the Lehigh Valley; this chart is a reversal of that trend.

Cumulative average of the Supply and Demand chart: Chart

For Sale: -12.7 %       Under Contract: +47.8%         Sold: -18 %

Reaction: Transactions reaching settlement in the Lehigh Valley has been a tumultuous area and the cumulative chart represents that theme is still prevalent. The bright side is that the For Sale homes and Under Contract metrics continue to be auspicious and that the future could and should be better.

Year over year Median Price chart: +3%   Chart.       

May 2012 = 164,848 @ 470 homes sold
May 2011 = 160,000 @ 454 homes sold

Reaction: The price increase is fairly nominal as the scope of this chart is just month's time frame. However, the increase in homes settling is a positive step in the right direction toward price increases.

Cumulative Price chart: -5.6%      Chart

Reaction: The decline in prices is most likely explained by distressed properties. If there are less properties being listed, and more properties going Under Contract, then there should be price increases. The question to how much more shadow inventory of foreclosed properties there remains in the market is difficult to predict. If Supply remains low, which I will discuss further, then that is cause for optimism.

Yearly Average of Supply: Month’s Supply of Inventory Chart: -35.3%    

Chart

Reaction: As supply decreases, the Lehigh Valley should be able to weather the effect of shadow inventory. If Supply keeps decreasing then prices should follow; prices have followed in the year over year comparison.

Month over Month of Supply: Month’s Supply of inventory chart: -42.8 %

Months of Supply for May: 4.9     Chart

Reaction: This past May was 42% better than last May. The supply is in a range that indicates the majority of the Lehigh Valley is in a neutral market. Therefore it is unclear if the buyers or sellers have the advantage. What this also means is in some areas the sellers have the advantage over the buyers which has been rare in the past few years.


Overall: Foreclosures and short sales are relinquishing their grip on the recent median prices and the MSI coincides with that theory. Progress has been made, but that does not mean people should rush into the market. The market is slow moving so that means cautious people are smart to feel the market out before jumping in. I believe it is a prudent time to refinance as there is certainly no evidence saying the trend for homes is downward from these metrics.

April Update  

Please read representations of these metrics.

-The major positive theme of the past two months has been the decrease in the Month’s Supply  of Inventory metric. If the decrease in supply is merely due to a warmer winter, then demand in March and April could be negatively effected. March was a great month and we will see how April compares. 

Supply & Demand Chart for the full time Period Between 2011 to 2012-  Chart

For Sale= (-)10.2% (4791)       Under Contract= (+)23.6% (678)                        Sold=( -)17% (454)

Reaction:  

FS: This trend is good, it means supply is dropping

Under Contract: This trend is also good, it means supply is moving a quicker pace

Sold: This is the black sheep of the cumulative metrics. The Sold metric represents that properties are still finding it difficult to settle and it probably signifies that many of the homes going Under Contract are distressed. Distressed properties take longer to sell, and when one couples the Under Contract metric and the Sold metric; it seems the length it takes to settle distressed properties adequately explain the disparity between the metrics.

Supply & Demand Chart Comparing Month over Month:  Chart

For Sale= (+)3.9%                             Under Contract= (+)39.5%                           Sold= (+) 24 

Reaction:

FS: People who have been awaiting a time to list their home are evidently joining the market. As the Spring Market has progressed and offered improvement in the Supply of the market, Sellers have taken advantage by listing their home. 

UC: Homes are selling at an impressive rate and this is the most important trend of all the metrics. It is a good omen for the future and hopefully we’ll see an impact in the Median Price metric in the coming 6 months.

Sold: This metric is excitable. It means homes are going under contract AND settling. That would be the most important trend reversal that the metrics have indicated over the course of 2012. Typically, the Lehigh Valley market has seen excellent Under Contract Metrics but has not seen a substantial increase in the Sold metric.

Median Price Chart over the full year:    Chart

(-) 4.8 %

Reaction: This chart tells the story of distressed properties still have a prevalent impact on the total Sale prices in the Lehigh Valley. Hopefully this trend changes soon and prices appreciate.

Median Price Chart Month 2 Month:   Chart

April 2011 $160,000 VS April 2012 $171,635 = (+)7.3%

Reaction: A trend for this Spring Season is that every month of the spring thus far has illustrated an increase in the Median price from the same month a year ago. I do not want to write anything too excitable as this trend needs to continue for there to be lasting impact. However, it certainly is an anxiety reducing metric.

Month’s Supply of Inventory Year over Year: Chart

MSI= -29.9 % from 7.9 to 5.5

Reaction: Simply put, the future bodes well for Lehigh Valley market prices if inventory stays at this level of supply. The Valley had 678 homes go Under Contract in April as compared to 486 April of last year.

Month’s Supply of Inventory over the full year:  Chart

MSI has fallen -22.3% over the past year

Reaction: The trend of the full year coincides nicely with the month to month trend. The longer that the two metrics mirror one another in type of change and slope of change, then the more likely and certain it is that the momentum of that trend is increasing. It is becoming apparent that the market supply is distinctly decreasing.

Overall Thoughts: If there was premature demand in the market due to a warm winter then April could help support that theory. I say could because it is possible that the whole year has seen an escalation of demand due to people buying earlier in the year. This month’s metrics were excellent in several ways and I hope to continue to see such progress for the Lehigh Valley housing market.

March 2012 Update

Supply & Demand Update for the Lehigh Valley March 2012

February recap- My conclusion for the month of February was the housing market moved supply at an incredible rate, an increase of 58% year over year. Simultaneously, the metrics that take into consideration the whole time period were not impressive.  Therefore, March’s monthly metrics will reveal which theme has more momentum; 1, the compelling increase in Under Contract homes; or 2, the dreary full time period metrics. Lastly, the Spring Season may have simply just started earlier because of nicer weather in February, it is a theme to keep in mind throughout the coming months.

Chart 1:Negative: Yearly Median Price Chart (159,900)

Reaction: Prices over the whole time period are down -4.7%. This metric tells the story of the past, but not of the future. The full time period metrics support the price decrease, what I am interested in is if the year over year metrics will continue to progress.

Chart 2: Yearover year: March 2011 compared to March 2012

March 2011: $154,900 –  March 2012 $159,585 – (+3%)

Reaction: I do not put a lot of stock in this metric as it has too many variables that fluctuate in a month to month comparison. However, it is certainly not a negative that the month to month comparison showed some growth.

Chart 3: Supply & Demand yearly chart:

For Sale homes: -5.6%            Under Contract: +10.6%         Sold Homes: -19.3%

Reaction: The continuing theme for the Lehigh Valley is that homes are going Under Contract at a compelling and positive rate, +10.6%. At the very same time, there was a -19.3% decrease in Sold homes. Unequivocally, the reason prices are down over the past year is the lack of settlements. The effect of the Sold metric has been somewhat offset by the decrease in the amount of homes For Sale and homes going Under Contract.

Chart 4: Supply & Demand Month to Month chart:

For Sale homes: +9.7% (4702)    Under Contract homes: +49.9% (712)    Sold homes: +3.1% (401)

Reaction: Just like last month, the Under Contract metric is up a staggering amount, close to 50% in March. March is typically the beginning of the Spring market, so unlike last month, good weather is not a good enough excuse for the huge increase in homes going Under Contract. However, the amount of For Sale homes this year is up +9.7% compared to last. What this means is that as inventory clears there are still people waiting to sell their homes.

Chart 5: Month’s Supply of Inventory full year:  -9.9%

Reaction: Supply is decreasing and that is excellent. We need to supply to reach the point where if the market stopped adding homes, there would be no more homes to sell after 4-6 months. See more commentary about the MSI number below.

Chart 6: Month’s Supply of Inventory year over year: J

            March 2011: MSI=7.4                         March 2012: MSI=5.1      -31% decline in MSI

Reaction: For the month of March 2012, the Lehigh Valley was in a neutral market.  A neutral market is a good thing. If this trend continues, prices will climb. There is tremendous momentum being obtained by the housing market. Hopefully it continues!

by Stephen Weinstein PA License # RS316695

What does a Harvard run study say about the housing market?

The quotes found in this post are from "The State of Nations Housing" published by the Joint Center For Housing Studies of Harvard University. One can find the published report here. The Citation for this post can be found at the bottom. I want to express that none of this research is research of my own.

These are quotes are quotes that I personally found interesting for various reasons. The JCHS also had their own highlight sheet that can be found here.

February 2012 Market Update

Below I will go over five charts that I feel are relevant to the Lehigh Valley Housing market. Also, there is a video that goes over the highlights right beneath this short intro!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oRbJLatGSN0

Supply and Demand chart Yearly period:

For Sale homes: (+)4.1% (4495)
Under Contract homes: (+) 1.6% (545)
Sold homes: (-) 7.1% (282)

Supply and Demand Yearly Chart

   Reaction: The major recent theme for the Lehigh Valley housing market is that supply (For Sale homes) keeps increasing as the amount of  Under Contract homes increases. For prices to increase, the number of For Sale homes needs to decrease, remain neutral, or increase marginally. Also, prices could  increase if homes go Under Contract with further escalation of pace. It is excellent that the amount of homes going Under Contract continually increases. The increase signifies that demand is picking up in the market, yet, even though there are more homes going Under Contract, the amount of homes making it through settlement has decreased, which in turn decreases the overall amount of homes Sold. In the future I will have some blog posts going into more specifics about why homes are not selling. Much of it has to do with financing; it is more difficult to deal with financing today than it was 5 years ago.


Supply and Demand Chart February 2011 compared to February 2012:

For Sale homes: (+) 19.2%
Under Contract homes: (+)58.0%
Sold homes: (+)1.8%

Month to Month Supply and Demand Chart

   Reaction: Just by looking at the Under Contract metric of the Month to Month chart, an increase of 58%, it seems that people are more excited about the Spring Market this year than last. Not only are more people attempting to take advantage of the larger pool of buyers that the spring market brings, but those buyers are doing more than looking around. As a result, the Lehigh Valley market should see an encouraging homes sold metric for the next few months. February is a traditionally slower month for the housing market but buyers are incredibly out and going Under Contract on homes at a 58% increase year over year. The Sold number also increased marginally, which means December 2011 and January 2012 were productive months for the housing market. I am curious to know if the warmer winter has started the Spring Season earlier than in year’s past. If the Spring Season started earlier, we should witness a slower March 2012 and April 2012 pertaining to the Under Contract numbers in the month to month comparisons.

Full year Median Price in the Lehigh Valley: (-)3.5% @ $150,000 (282 home sold)
Median Price Yearly period


   Reaction: We are all waiting for prices to start to increase. Homes are continuing to Sell and supply continues to decrease. As supply decrease we will see an increase in prices. The problem with the Lehigh Valley housing market right now is how slow the housing environment is changing toward positive price increases.

Month Supply of Inventory over the year:

The Year Period for Month's Supply of Inventory

   Reaction: Over the course of the year, supply increased by 1.6%. That is not an impactful change in the supply,  it shows that the housing market has been in stasis as far as supply and demand is concerned. If one looks at the MSI chart from February 2010 to February 2012, one will see a decrease of (-)15.5%.

Month’s Supply of Inventory comparing month over month:

February 2010: MSI of 10
February 2011: MSI of 9

February 2012: MSI of 6.6

February 2012 compared to February2011

   Reaction: The Lehigh Valley had a great month in terms of decreasing supply. A normal housing market has about 4-6 months of supply. If February is an indicator of what is to come for 2012, then the market looks like it will turn. I am cautiously optimistic about the market as it was a warmer in February than the past two years. Weather considered, February 2012 saw a decrease in MSI of (-) 26.1% which is compelling.




by Stephen Weinstein PA License # RS316695