End of Year Summary: 2015 Lehigh Valley Market.

I hope this post finds you well in 2016. If you have a moment and like consistent Lehigh Valley Real Estate related news, take some time to like my Facebook page, please. 

2015 was a good year for the housing market. The supply continually went down and I believe this should have upward pressure for prices in 2016.

 

Reaction: These statistics are comparing Dec 2014 to Dec 2015, Month Over Month. Though it would be impressive if the change in closed sales were also positive, that goal is difficult with there being less homes for buyers to choose from.

I. GLVAR Report: Please Click Here for the Report.

A) Averages Sales and Pended Sales

 Reaction: The average sale prices performed well in 2015 Southern Lehigh and the Allentown School districts had the highest price appreciation. Over the course of the year, there were 16.6%  more homes sold than the previous year. This did not come at the expense of home prices --- that is a strong indicator of demand. Meaning, no sales were needed to help sellers move!


B) December Pended Units --

 

Reaction: Why so many sales in this month to month comparison? It could be because people wanted buy a home before the Federal Reserve raised rates. It could simply be that people are ready to buy -- I do not believe there is an exact reason. The threat of raising rates has been trailing the house market for a long time.

C) Optimism for 2016

There are not a lot options for buyers going into 2016 --- this looks auspicious for home prices, especially the Median and Average Sale metrics. The emphasis of this chart is to show how many homes are currently on the market. Clearly, there are very few.

D) Lender Mediated Activity (optimism part 2)

Here is the 2014 synopsis for Lender Mediated properties:

Here is the synopsis for 2015:

 

Comments: Feel free to download the picture if its difficult to see.  The market share of lender mediated homes in 2014 was 10.8% and in 2015 it was 10.2%. A slight decrease is good, but the trend to watch going forward is: are foreclosed, short sale and other distressed properties ceasing to be drags on the average price of homes in the Lehigh Valley?

2014: Average Sales price was -8.2% 

2015: Average Sale price increased 1.5%

While statistics can fluctuate as an outlier over a year's time frame, it is still a trend to watch. If foreclosed properties continue to appreciate, this could be a good litmus to follow for 2016.

 II. Zillow Report. Please Click Here for the Report.

The ZHVI is an aggregate analysis of all homes listed and not listed homes for which Zillow assigns a value. It is an interesting method to follow price trends because it attempts to block out sample size bias. It is up 2.3% and 2.7% for Northampton and Lehigh County.

Negative equity continues to decrease as does the foreclosure rate. The lower these rates go, the stronger pool of homeowners becomes.