April Update  

Please read representations of these metrics.

-The major positive theme of the past two months has been the decrease in the Month’s Supply  of Inventory metric. If the decrease in supply is merely due to a warmer winter, then demand in March and April could be negatively effected. March was a great month and we will see how April compares. 

Supply & Demand Chart for the full time Period Between 2011 to 2012-  Chart

For Sale= (-)10.2% (4791)       Under Contract= (+)23.6% (678)                        Sold=( -)17% (454)

Reaction:  

FS: This trend is good, it means supply is dropping

Under Contract: This trend is also good, it means supply is moving a quicker pace

Sold: This is the black sheep of the cumulative metrics. The Sold metric represents that properties are still finding it difficult to settle and it probably signifies that many of the homes going Under Contract are distressed. Distressed properties take longer to sell, and when one couples the Under Contract metric and the Sold metric; it seems the length it takes to settle distressed properties adequately explain the disparity between the metrics.

Supply & Demand Chart Comparing Month over Month:  Chart

For Sale= (+)3.9%                             Under Contract= (+)39.5%                           Sold= (+) 24 

Reaction:

FS: People who have been awaiting a time to list their home are evidently joining the market. As the Spring Market has progressed and offered improvement in the Supply of the market, Sellers have taken advantage by listing their home. 

UC: Homes are selling at an impressive rate and this is the most important trend of all the metrics. It is a good omen for the future and hopefully we’ll see an impact in the Median Price metric in the coming 6 months.

Sold: This metric is excitable. It means homes are going under contract AND settling. That would be the most important trend reversal that the metrics have indicated over the course of 2012. Typically, the Lehigh Valley market has seen excellent Under Contract Metrics but has not seen a substantial increase in the Sold metric.

Median Price Chart over the full year:    Chart

(-) 4.8 %

Reaction: This chart tells the story of distressed properties still have a prevalent impact on the total Sale prices in the Lehigh Valley. Hopefully this trend changes soon and prices appreciate.

Median Price Chart Month 2 Month:   Chart

April 2011 $160,000 VS April 2012 $171,635 = (+)7.3%

Reaction: A trend for this Spring Season is that every month of the spring thus far has illustrated an increase in the Median price from the same month a year ago. I do not want to write anything too excitable as this trend needs to continue for there to be lasting impact. However, it certainly is an anxiety reducing metric.

Month’s Supply of Inventory Year over Year: Chart

MSI= -29.9 % from 7.9 to 5.5

Reaction: Simply put, the future bodes well for Lehigh Valley market prices if inventory stays at this level of supply. The Valley had 678 homes go Under Contract in April as compared to 486 April of last year.

Month’s Supply of Inventory over the full year:  Chart

MSI has fallen -22.3% over the past year

Reaction: The trend of the full year coincides nicely with the month to month trend. The longer that the two metrics mirror one another in type of change and slope of change, then the more likely and certain it is that the momentum of that trend is increasing. It is becoming apparent that the market supply is distinctly decreasing.

Overall Thoughts: If there was premature demand in the market due to a warm winter then April could help support that theory. I say could because it is possible that the whole year has seen an escalation of demand due to people buying earlier in the year. This month’s metrics were excellent in several ways and I hope to continue to see such progress for the Lehigh Valley housing market.